A few global macro items to look at as we begin discussing where Bitcoin is now, and why. Total assets on the FED balance sheet is above $8 trillion:
This level of money printing and balance sheet expansion has lead to inflation. Even the CPI has gone from 1.4% to 5% inflation in 2021. Real inflation is conservatively 12% to 14% and growing fast. By end of year it could be over 18%, time will tell.
China has again thrown FUD at Bitcoin publicly. This time they have banned mining! 90% of Chinese miners have shut down, most are moving out of China to start up in greener pastures. The difficulty adjustment will kick in in about 10 days making the algorithym easier for the remaining miners. This will get the Bitcoin hash rate back up. Many of these miners are moving to the US. Texas has really stepped up to take on these miners. We are involved to some extent in that effort to apply mining equipment to stranded gas and flare gas in Texas. By August, September mining hash rates will be back up again, the % of Bitcoin mining using coal based power will be way down as Texas will be utilizing waste gas, and renewable fuels. Bitcoin is very helpful for the environment, it was China that was the major polluter. Now that Chinese mining will drop way off. Bitcoin will be much better off in the future!
Steve Cohen is looking into Crypto Currency as he states below:
Billionaire Steve Cohen says he is fully converted to #Bitcoin and crypto: “I’m not going to miss this. I’ve missed the first part, but I still feel like I’m early.” He’s worth $14 Billion.
Bitcoin is definintely in a downward trajectory lately. May and June have been negative months. Yet there are charts showing current price compared to the bull run of 2017. The similarities are there:
The stock to flow model on lookintobitcoin.com shows the S2F divergence indicator (bottom of chart) is at 0.8. Historically, that is a trend reversal level. This gives prudence to the speculation, and hypothesis, that Bitcoin is in a re-accumulation, consolidation phase, of a continuing bull market, click here to read.
The 50 day MA has not crossed the 200 day MA yet. This is known as the death cross. However, this indicator has been a fake out during bull runs. The structure in the charts does not look anything like a market top. See this chart below:
The next chart shows arrows indicating death crosses which lead to bear markets. See the blow off tops to the left of each arrow. We don’t have a blow off top now. This leads Neutral ATM to believe, even at these prices, the bull run is NOT over. We see more of a double top bull run somewhat similar to 2013. See the chart below:
We are so far away from the bull market top it is hard to draw comparisons between the 2017 bull run or the 2013 bull run. An argument could be made to compare this bull run to either of the past ones. We see more of the 2013 bull run in the chart structure, but we are so early still. These are post mortem comparisons. We cannot be accurate with the until after the bull run is over. What we are very confident of, is that this bull run is NOT over. That is the moral of the story. We are not perma bulls. We know a bear market will come and it could last 12 to 18 months. Likely it will last close to 18 months. Just remember, Bitcoin has always posted higher lows and higher highs on zoomed out, long time frames. That is why it is so important to resist the urge to sell and hold Bitcoin, long term! By 2030, Bitcoin should be over $1million. We think it could hit $1million in the 2025 bull run. Maybe it comes up short. USD is getting more worthless by the day. Debt is a weapon against the middle class. So stay out of debt, don’t use leverage to acquire Bitcoin, and hold it long term.
Neutral ATM buys and sells Bitcoin as little as $20 at a time! You do NOT have to buy an entire Bitcoin. Our OTC Desk is coming online soon, low rates, buy or sell online 24/7/365. Neutral ATM is here to get everyone off of zero Bitcoin.