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Bitcoin, Living in Uncertainty

September is usually the worst month of the year, most years, in terms of ROI for Bitcoin.  Many Bitcoiners are counting down the days until October starts.  Here is a sign that Bitcoin could break out.  Although it may take a few more days.  It is still fighting resistance below the hashribbons, and is trying to break out of this resistance.  The level to clear is $44,500 or so.  If it gets there, we can re-assess where Bitcoin may go next.  Here is the chart:
The stablecoin supply ratio chart below implies Bitcoin may have money waiting to get back in to Bitcoin, when price action begins looking bullish again.  The yellow line in the chart below is stablecoin supply ratio.  A lot of Bitcoin bulls will have money in USDT (USD Tether) waiting to move it into Bitcoin.  There has now been a several month delay of this money coming in to Bitcoin.  In the next days, or weeks, the trend should move up.  Unless, China Evergrande drags Bitcoin down that soon.  We still see that as being possible, but temporary, before scared money comes in to Bitcoin as a flight to safety.  Here is the chart below on stablecoin supply ratio:
If this deflationary crash, triggered by China Evergrande does happen.  The uptrend may be delayed, that does’nt mean sell now, or that it won’t happen.  So, two scenarios:
  1. China Evergrande triggers the crash very soon, in October.  This delays the parabolic run for a few weeks.  Bitcoin could drop to $38K, then to $30K before bouncing back up into this uptrend.
  2. October being one of the best months for Bitcoin ROI, triggers the parablock uptrend in a matter of days or two weeks.
October is noteworthy!  Historically, it is a bullish month, if Bitcoin is in a bull market.  We say it is.  This bull run is mimicking 2013’s double top bull run, as we have been saying all summer.  What we don’t know is how long this consolidation phase will take.  Due to China Evergrande, it could consolidate right through October and even look bearish if this crash happens soon.  What we can note about October, over the last 8 years.  It has held a tight pattern of three green monthly October candles, then one red monthly October candle.  See the chart below from Crypto Crew University:
Bitcoin had a red candle in 2018, a bear market year.  Then green candles in 2019, and 2020.  2021 is the third year, and should be the highest ROI year of this bull market.  Unfortunately, a lot of bearish news is on the horizon.  So the above two scenarios account for both possibilities.  In neither case do we suggest selling Bitcoin.  Now is the time to hold it.  Selling is only in special circumstances, like a major purchase at the top of the bull market, or retirement during the same time frame.
Remember, Bitcoin is freedom from oppression, inflation, and or deflation.  It is the safe play for hedging central banks.  Speaking of freedom, below is a picture from El Salvador of a Bitcoin ATM, and payment acceptance at a store.  It will continue to attract Nation States to adopt it, and get out from under the tax of inflation and monetary devaluation.  Stay tuned for more of that news as well:
Uncertainty brings opportunity, hold Bitcoin, and if the crash we expect to some degree happens.  Buy that dip.
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