I personally relate to a honey badger. A lot of Bitcoiners do. I am not real big, and I am not Ivy League educated or anything. Most can relate. How does Bitcoin relate?
First of all, Honey Badgers are small, and they will fight anything no matter how big. I remember an LSU safety being called the honey badger years ago for his aggressive play. Anything or anyone that will fight against all odds for what they believe in could be equated to a Honey Badger. They are the Rudy of the animal kingdom. Bitcoin is not controlled by a singular person. It is good at overcoming multiple deaths, it does not have a belief system in and of itself. Neither does a Honey Badger, they take what they want. Now, Bitcoin has seen Bitmex the largest derivative Crypto Currency exchange have its owners charged with crimes for operating without proper anti money laundering procedures in place. Early this morning it comes out that President Trump and the First Lady have Covid 19. Bitcoin dumped 4%. Now it has climbed back to $10,540. It dipped to as low as $10,370. This is resiliency. This is anti-fragile. I would submit that Bitcoin has not reached anywhere close to its potential just in this bull market rally. This setback will not have a lasting impact. Bitcoin has also seen futures contracts cleared out to a large extent today, which could pave the way for price appreciation with such fewer Bitcoin short futures contracts dragging down prices. See this chart for a look at a clear path out of this malaise:
Bitcoin will not be any closer to its top in this bull market rally until obstacles are cleared. Bitmex was often cited as an obstacle due to all the short futures contracts placed through there. Not to mention all the shenanigans going on. Now that is all gone. Also, we know each halving cycle and subsequent bull run, this is the third cycle, we have seen lengthening time frames for the cycle. They cannot go beyond four years each, but they can draw closer and closer to the four-year time frame each cycle. We saw the first bull run was well under a year. The second took 18 months. It stands to reason this bull market will last a total of two years. If so, then 2nd QTR 2022 will mark the end of this bull run. It may go even longer. We won’t know until we get there but that is my pre-drawn conclusion now. I also see a similar 20X top to this bull market like the 2016 – 2017 cycle. Just more drawn out. If that is true, Bitcoiners need to be more patient, resilient that Bitcoin will win in the end. What will take over Bitcoin as the most likely successor to fiat currency if and when it does collapse? Many DeFi projects are likely to get caught up in similar fates as Bitmex. Yet Bitcoin chugs along sideways through all of this. This rising wedge Bitcoin is trapped in per the chart above will break eventually. I see it as being further out than others do, I want to preach patience and to stick to what we came here to do. That is, hold on, hold the line, do not waiver, let banking stocks crash the stock market. Let the Fed deleverage their debt by trying to get 2% to 3% inflation but not reaching those levels. Let interest rates stay near zero then go negative in 2021 or 2022. Let this free market take the economy through stagflation for a number of years. Let the Fed create bank reserves so that banks can loan to fortune 500 companies to buy back their own stocks. Let the DeFi bubble burst in 2021 or 2022. Bitcoin will still be there, slowly going up then sideways, then up again after another break out from a long rising wedge. When this bull market finally does tap out how much time will be left before the halving in late 2023, early 2024? I see a day when Bitcoin bull markets will be indistinguishable from Bitcoin blow off top and subsequent bear markets. Highs and lows will even out and as adoption grows in future years. Bitcoin will become mainstream and eventually it will be more predictable, less unstable than today. It takes a Honey Badger to survive all this. Bitcoin is similar to the Honey Badger in that regard. Trust the process and look for similar investments uncorrelated to Central Banks. Neutral ATM will be helping everyone get off zero Bitcoin.
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