Russia is now trading Oil for Rubles to all unfriendly countries, which it deems the US and Europe, click here to read more.
India is trading Oil for Rupees. Saudi Arabia is still working on their deal with China to create the petroyuan, thereby trading Oil for Yuan. Everyone must get out of the Dollar now! It is getting urgent! Today, we were wiring into our exchange account to buy up Bitcoin. It took 3 times longer than usual! Maybe that is nothing. We are concerned for the US Banking System. Therefore, we will focus on global macro.
Let’s start with the 10 year treasury yield:
We believe at some point the Fed will not be able to continue with the rate hikes. We may see two, three, perhaps four hikes. Then, a reversal would ensue and the long bond yield would come back down like this 30 year trend suggests. However, if that does happen, and we believe it is likely what does that do to the dollar? We think the dollar will come down from it’s recent trend, however we cannot say how long this tightening will last. We still doubt the Fed can keep this up for the entirety of 2022. The markets WILL react. Not just stocks, the real estate market as well! Perhaps the rate hikes remain through 2022. We have to wait and see, we doubt it. This path the US Fed is on, is 100% unsustainable. We gravely expect a market crash.
Below is the best run down we have seen of what may happen over the next few years:
We do not know how Bitcoin would react to a deflationary stock market crash from 2022 to 2024 of 50% +. It has not happened since 2009 when Bitcoin came out. We can see Bitcoin climbing now until this crash, perhaps in the fall? Perhaps in 2023? Timing is impossible to predict. When stocks do see a deflationary crash we can see Bitcoin reacting. But then a V bottom recovery and complete decoupling from stocks later on.
Fed total assets on the balance sheet is right at $9 trillion:
Raising rates like this into a deep recession will not be possible. Thereby, forcing the Fed to reverse course at some point in the future. This reversal, we believe could lead to hyperinflation. Here is Jack Dorsey on that subject: