Bitcoin hangs in the balance waiting for this rigged and manipulated FOMC announcement to decide the monetary policy for the next month or more. We expect 75 bps, but it could be 50 bps. We DO NOT think 100 bps is in the cards. Time will tell. OK, it just came in now, 75 bps rate hike! Relief rally here we come!
OK so we got that out of the way. There was also an update on Executive Order 14067 instituting more research into a US CBDC (central bank digital currency). This is what the globalists want to trot out to supplant the US dollar. Now that we know the rate hike is 75 bps. The projection is for the FFR (Fed funds rate) to reach 4.6%. With CPI at 8.3% currently, that will not allow a significant slow down of inflation with only a 4.6% FFR. We have said this countless times in the blogs. Either interest rates and the FFR get exponentially higher than that or the Fed will eventually reverse course, cut rates to lower their debt service expense, and print money into the money supply like 2020. They will be forced into this as the recession reduces tax revenues, and the only way to get those up is to cut rates and print! Because the Fed and US government know this, they have to roll out a CBDC ,in the face of future out of control inflation, click here to view on twitter.
That is where Bitcoin comes in. Bitcoin is 100% decentralized and out of central bank control. Therefore, since it is digital, this is where a lot of investment will go, once the DXY does roll over, and rate cuts ensue. We KNOW the Fed cannot raise rates indefinently. No the DXY has not rolled over, and it may still hit 120! Here is a chart of the DXY:
When the DXY does roll over and rate cuts and printing picks up again. 2023 sometime. By then, perhaps the CBDC will become a more public debate, towards the end of 2023. When all of this comes together we expect to see this converge with what the Bitcoin charts are telling us. Per Steve Courtney, in 2014-2015, 2018, and not 2022 the 5 day death cross whereby the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average. This is a lagging indicator. Historically it means that in a few weeks or months after that cross. Scheduled now for October 3rd. The bear market ends, once Bitcoin makes those moving averages support. Steve Courtney believes, and we agree, this cycle is moving slower than past cycles so it may take a little longer. Here are his comparison’s of the past three cycles reaction to the 5 day death cross, where the 50 day moving average goes below the 200 day:
Then look at the fact that Biden is refilling the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) soon and paying $80/ barrel for that Oil. This will keep the WTI crude price high and could raise it some. Add this up with what is in the charts and the at some point. Maybe October, worst case November/ December Bitcoin will start moving up. See this chart below for the double bottom we are sitting on now:
Also, the descending broadening wedge is obviously playing out in the charts. We cannot predict a time, just that everything is pointing that Bitcoin should be moving up in the not too distant future:
This is not financial advise and we are not financial advisors. We are all running out of time to buy Bitcoin this cheap. Take advantage. Soon the train will leave the station!
Neutral ATM is here to get everyone off of zero Bitcoin.