Bitcoin is still basically consolidating under $20,000 starting it’s second week. This is becoming a tight consolidation so it should break soon. Today or tonight, in the morning at the latest:
Bitcoin has looked short term bearish twice, yet it did not break down much. The shorts kept getting bought up quickly. We are waiting on which direction it will go. No way to know at this point. If Bitcoin closes a daily candle above $20,000 if it does, in fact, break up, it will keep going. The major resistance is at $20,000. The humanitarian side of Bitcoin is the ability for everyday Americans to hedge the money printing from the fed. Bitcoin is up 160% to 170% year to date. It truly is the only crypto currency that is scarce and is a provable, verifyable, store of value. The other crypto currencies do not have halvings like Bitcoin and they are not scarce, therefore, not a store of value. Ethereum does a good job as a mode of exchange, we do own it, and we are bullish on Ethereum as well. We don’t take the other alt coins as seriously, but we watch Theta and XRP with interest. We don’t own them. We remain resistant to take that risk. We trust Bitcoin and to a lesser extent, Ethereum. When everyday Americans and even citizens of third world countries can climb out of financial issues even to the extent of poverty, due to a debased currency, that equates to a reversal of financial fortunes. Bitcoin will likely usher in a very large wealth transfer that has not been seen in over a generation. The charts already show a three year building wedge pattern that was broken in October. If in fact, Bitcoin breaks up out of this consolidation which is probably 50/50 to be conservative. That would confirm the breakout from this three year wedge pattern. Here is the chart:
Look closely at the bottom of the chart. It has the years on it. They are in black with white highlights, hard to read. The left side of this chart goes back 2015. The wedge starts at the top of the 2017 bull run. We have been in this wedge ever since and broke out of it in October. If this consolidation breaks up that will be incredibly bullish for Bitcoin going into a historic year, 2021. With the global macro back drop of a possible new administration, and even looser fiscal policy than before. 2021 could transfer wealth like no year before it has.
Venezuelans, Lebanese, Iranian, Central Americans, and Africans with no access to banking, have had the chance to accumulate Bitcoin since 2018 or even before. In 2017 the bull market went from $176 to $19,872. This bull run began at $3,800 at the very bottom after Covid 19 started in March. Where will it go? Some of Neutral ATM’s customers sell Bitcoin to buy Altcoins. Just for grins, here is a three year falling wedge pattern of XRP. This looks very bullish as well:
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