There are reasons to be optimistic! First, global macro. That is wagging the dog these days. The Biden administration put out that GDP was up in 2021. However, 70% of that GDP growth was for stockpiling inventory. Why does the government report that, click here to view on Twitter.
It says unintended stockpiling of inventory may imply future cutbacks. Supply shortage expected, 2022? Yes, we see it already. It’s January!
These next two charts are the buying power of $100 adjusted from inflation since 1792. The next chart shows the federal funds rate compared to CPI inflation. Inflation has not run this hot, with 0.8% FFR and 7% CPI at the same time. Since 1950. See these charts below:
Thanks to Lyn Alden for these above charts. It is really visible in the second chart how hot the monetary system has run inflation since 2001-2002. It is far worse now than in 2008! This great financial recession will dwarf 2008-2009! The chart above makes that obvious!
This next chart shows the USD currency index (DXY) compared to the BTC/USD chart. They are inversely coorelated:
The VIX and DXY both being up, have helped push the Bitcoin price down. But the DXY was up in 2017 during that bull run.
There is more information; that martini guy from twitter shares this video about the UK pairlement needing to get on the Bitcoin standard. Embrace it, and regulate it, but not ban it. Russia and the US are doing similar things, and Turkey is seriously considering making Bitcoin a legal tender. Below is that video, click here to view on YouTube.
Russia is also working to create a miner friendly regulatory environment for Bitcoin since it has such a cold climate and cheap energy sources. Perfect for mining Bitcoin. Does any of this sound bearish for Bitcoin?
This next chart shows Bitcoin when it was $47K last month. Look at the yellow line 161.8% since the last halving. Now that Bitcoin has touched below $33K a month later, it may wick to $30K still in late January, early February. In 2017 it bounced off of this level and went parabolic. A short squeeze ensued. See the chart below: