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Bitcoin: Endowment vs Speculation

Bitcoin has survivied countless 50% plus crashes.  It has out paced all other investments.  Bitcoin is being purchased right now at this dip by; Nation States, Hedge Funds, Institutional Investors, Pensions.  Friday we showed how Blackrock and Citadel manipulated UST and Luna, and crashed them, which crashed Bitcoin at the time.  However, this weekly candle shows that Bitcoin wicked to $25K but closed the body of this weekly candle at $30K.  Thus, this is a bottom candle.  Next Sunday this can be confirmed.  We doubt Bitcoin gets anywhere near $25K this week!  If this last weeks candle, is proven a bottom candle in a week.  Be glad you did’nt sell and bought this dip, as we suggested and did.  These markets never get old, they never stop getting a leg up over competition.  Manipulation will always play a role in Bitcoin.  It’s worse now because we have a Future’s ETF and no Spot ETF in Bitcoin.  Once the Bitcoin Spot ETF is approved, change will be obvious.  Bitcoin has never been less than a technological breakthrough, like the financial world has never seen.  Here is the bottom chart we need to be watching over the next week:


Neutral ATM - Bitcoin ATM’s in Texas - Bitcoin: Endowment vs Speculation


If this gets confirmed by Sunday night 5/22, Bitcoin will rally over the next number of months.  Until year end 2022 or even beyond then.  Time will tell.


This next chart looks at Market Yield on US Treasury Securities, at 2 year maturity.  As this yield slows and rolls over as it appears is happening now.  What does this mean?  Are rate hikes already priced in?  Is recession in the economy expected, and this yield curve is the result?  We think so.  Here is the chart:


Neutral ATM - Bitcoin ATM’s in Texas - Bitcoin: Endowment vs Speculation


We have been saying for a long time this year, that rate hikes will only work for so long.  We have seen this last month, significant retraction in GDP growth, and ISM Index numbers.  By June we expect the economy to be in recession levels of retraction, and that is only the beginning.  In that environment, at some point, the Fed will eventually have to revert to QE and money printing.  Maybe that is August, September, October or later.  We expect it in 2022!  Time will tell what plays out.  If we are right about that, Bitcoin will run again.  

The meyer multiple also shows a significant bottom in this chart below:

Neutral ATM - Bitcoin ATM’s in Texas - Bitcoin: Endowment vs Speculation


We saw a meyer multiple bottom like this in 2015, twice in 2018, March 2020, and now!  This is a significant bottom for Bitcoin we are in right now.  Neutral ATM started out in Bitcoin at the March 2020 bottom, and we know when the global macro environment does turn.  A run from here could break 1,000% as it did in 2020 (1,800%).  This entity adjusted dormancy flow chart below, also shows a major bottom has been found.  That does not mean the price cannot go any lower.  Just that Bitcoin is oversold here, at this point.  Here is the chart below: