Bitcoin was over $40K on Thursday morning. Ironically, we looked at property last Wednesday. Then, Bitcoin dumped to $31K as of this morning. It is up to $31,700 now. Was $31K the bottom? We will discuss that later on. This next chart shows the standard deviations of Bitcoin. In past bull runs Bitcoin always reaches the + 3rd standard deviation. It has not done that yet. The $69K top was +1.2 standard deviation. The bottom of each cycle is the -2 standard deviation. Bitcoin hit that in 3/2020. So, right now, Bitcoin is down to a -1 standard deviation. It is looking for a bottom. Here is the chart below:
When Bitcoin finds that bottom it will spring back up. We reported a couple weeks ago, demand was over 1709 coins per day, while production is stuck at 900 coins per day. In 2024 it drops to 450 coins per day. So, what will happen to demand per day for Bitcoin, if it drops below $30K into this “discount of discount” range on this next chart below?:
Bitcoin has dropped to $31,120 and is barely holding $30K. It appears the bottom will be sub $30K. We have to see how this unfolds. This is hard to process for some. Look at the big picture. This next chart goes back to 8/2011. Remember that when Bitcoin hit $3,800 in 3/2020, it ran up 1800% to $64K in 4/2021! It will do that again. We are thinking it would hit the top in late 2022. But that is not important. Remember that this dump will be a insignificant blip on the chart in a year to 3 years from now. 5 years ago, Bitcoin was $1,700 per coin. Here is the decade long chart:
Also, Bitcoin growth in the last decade was 333,402%. This is over 10X higher than the Nasdaq grew in the last decade, and this will continue into the next decade as well. So DO NOT SELL. Demand, especially sub $30K, will explode and push Bitcoin up fast!
This last chart shows us this bottom forming. Bitcoin is at the end of the cycle long bull flag triangle. On the chart this cycle since 2020, is the second triangle. The last cycle and the one before that, also had bull flag triangles that went back over a year. The simple fact that Bitcoin has NOT had it’s blow off top. Bitcoin has NOT therefore, reached the end of this bull market cycle. We still see the charts telling us Bitcoin is rhythmic, and still in a bull market cycle. It needs a final flush of all leveraged longs, which would happen below $30K. We see a test of $28K to $30K coming. It could go lower than that, but we doubt it. Here is the chart below: