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Bitcoin chopping but heading into capitulation

We will stick to our guns on where Bitcoin is heading.  We still hold out hope that a recovery very late in 2022 is possible.  We will know when we get there.  However, between now and October, November, December.  It will be Ugly!  Here’s why we think so.  Let’s look at two DXY charts first.  The top chart is close up and shows the recent reversal back up, as Bitcoin drops today.  Remember, Bitcoin is the inverse to the DXY (US dollar index) chart.  The second chart is zoomed out.  There is a giant W pattern on the DXY dating back to 2017.  Could the DXY be pushed above the 105 resistance level?  This would be required if the Fed is going raise rates enough to keep the dollar strong during this inflationary period.  Here are the two DXY charts below:


Neutral ATM - Bitcoin ATM’s in Texas - Bitcoin chopping but heading into capitulation


The Bitcoin price action was positive for a while.  Now, however, Bitcoin is dropping towards $30K.  Yesterday, the Bitcoin price and RSI had broken out.  Bitcoin bulls are pointing to the lower DXY prices, as reason for another run to a new ATH this fall.  If DXY prices keep falling yes, that would happen.  However, how many more rate hikes will the Fed put out?  We need to keep watching the DXY.  The Bitcoin price action will inverse the DXY every time.  Here is the chart below, from the bull perspective:


Neutral ATM - Bitcoin ATM’s in Texas - Bitcoin chopping but heading into capitulation


This next chart is hard to read.  It is from Mark Moss and it shows 2 yr bonds compared to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR).  It is relevant because this is most likely the most important, and least known chart, the Fed watches to decide when to stop raising rates.  Known as the Fed pivot. This pivot will happen when, and if the 2 year bond yields roll over and get below the FFR.  Based on this chart that will occur after the next rate hike in June, perhaps after the July rate hike.  Assuming there is one in July.  Here is the chart below: