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Bitcoin and the Global Macro Landscape

Gold backed currencies in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the BRIC countries is looking more and more possible or likely.  See this interview with Max Keizer, click here to view on twitter.


Here is an article in Reuters about Russia and China discussing their partnership and international payment the two countries will engage in.  Both Nations are accepting payment for Oil in their respective currencies.  Both have enough Gold stored to back their respective currencies in Gold, click here to read more.  


This is good for Gold yes, it is also good for Bitcoin.  Below is the USD/RUB chart.  The Ruble is up 10% on the USD recently.  This is increasing pressure on the Fed to rein in inflation by raising rates.  However, how long can this really last?  As the Ruble strengthens, it hollows out the resolve of the Fed to fight inflation, if GDP keeps contracting, as it did by 1.5% in the first quarter.  Here is the USD/RUB chart below:


Neutral ATM - Bitcoin ATM’s in Texas - Bitcoin and the Global Macro Landscape


It is our firm believe that once the economy in the US shows major cracks and they widen.  That is when the Fed reverses course and begins going dovish again.  As in 2020.  July is when the second quarter GDP growth statistics will come out.  By the end of July, if GDP contracts again, we will know where we stand.  Perhaps by August or September, the Fed reversal will come.  The DXY is now over 104.  Up even from yesterday.  Highest since 2002!  Here is the latest DXY (USD Index) chart:

Neutral ATM - Bitcoin ATM’s in Texas - Bitcoin and the Global Macro Landscape

The DXY dropped from 120 to 71 from 2002 to 2008.  Easy money policies in those years, led to the 2008-2009 Global Financial Recession.  High inflation since the early 70’s after the USD got off the gold standard, also led to the Manufacturing base in the US shipping jobs off to China, Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, and India.  Now the US has a - $110 Billion annual trade deficit.  Here is that chart below:


Neutral ATM - Bitcoin ATM’s in Texas - Bitcoin and the Global Macro Landscape


Between this trade deficit, and the $30 trillion national debt.  The Fed has to much to lose with the economy collapsing to stick with raising rates once this collapse shows up statistically.  So we need to watch the GDP growth %, DXY chart, the 2 yr, and 10 yr Bond Yields, and the national debt statistics.  If GDP growth is down in July when second quarter statistics are released.  This Fed reversal won’t be far behind that time frame.  Whenever that actually does happen.  That is when the DXY will reverse course.  It is showing signs of it right now.

This next chart compares the DXY now in 2022, to 2016.  We cannot pin down time frames.  Whenever, the Fed talks dovish again.  Whenever the DXY starts falling.  Look for the real Bitcoin breakout.  What happened Wednesday and Thursday was a fake out.  The real one will occur when the DXY falls: