According to this chart below. The bolinger bands are tightening and volatility is about to increase dramatically. Will this volatility be up or down? Here is the chart below:
Like all technical analysis, it is emotionless. Bollinger bands get tight before severe volatility sets in. Unfortunately, when we analyze the global macro situation, and the technical aspects of the charts. It looks UGLY! These next three charts from three excellent analysts tell the story. First, Steve Courtney. The red line below is the 200MA (200 day moving average). Bitcoin is below that, and Saturday night the month closes. If Bitcoin remains below $46K it will have closed below the red line, the 200MA on a month candle. Long time frames are more definitive. Very bad sign, if that happens:
Next, Gareth Solloway, he is a Bitcoiner, but right now he is very bearish on Bitcoin. This bear flag, ascending channel, has been forming since December 31st! We started paying attention to this as a looming omen 4 or 5 weeks ago. Bitcoin could come close to the top of this channel in May. That would be close to $50K. If it drops off a little from that level after the 3 day MACD death cross happens (May 15ish). Look out below!:
Ascending channels are bearish 80% to 100% of the time! The numbers don’t lie. Garreth cautions that this may only last 6 months, or up to 9 months worst case.
This last chart is from Crypto Zombie, the blue line is the 200 day MA and the red line is the 600 day MA. Can Bitcoin hold the 600 MA? If it does, it could run up close to $50K before dumping. That would be great if it happens.
It is also a possibility that Bitcoin goes on a run later this year and never really dumps. Both Steve Courtney and Garreth Sollaway are calling for sub $20K, could get down to $15K! That is a serious dump, but will it actually happen? Are you willing to take the risk?
Remember, where we are in the long term adoption cycle of Bitcoin. See this Blockware Solutions chart below: